Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tomori Berat vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
11/5/20221st Division1st Division · Round 9Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tomori Berat49%
×Draw27%
Besëlidhja Lezhë24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomori Berat
1.42
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.91

Tomori Berat creates 56% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tomori Berat
1.36
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Tomori Berat
0.95
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw
76%
Tomori Berat or Besëlidhja Lezhë
73%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
51%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+
24%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals
76%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
41%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
17%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
60%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
23%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
67%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tomori Berat scores more
49%
level
27%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
24%

Tomori Berat at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomori Berat vs Besëlidhja Lezhë

Tomori Berat beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 2-1 in 1st Division on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tomori in Berat.