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Tomislav vs Stupčanica Olovo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tomislav
Tomislav
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
5/10/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 22Stadion Tomislavgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Tomislav40%
×Draw28%
Stupčanica Olovo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomislav
1.25
Stupčanica Olovo
1.10

Tomislav creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 57 away

creates per match

Tomislav
1.49
Stupčanica Olovo
1.23

allows per match

Tomislav
0.98
Stupčanica Olovo
1.02

finishing

Tomislav+0.00on par
Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomislav ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tomislav or draw
68%
Tomislav or Stupčanica Olovo
72%
Draw or Stupčanica Olovo
60%

Winning margin

Tomislav wins by 2+
17%
Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tomislav 1+ goals
71%
Tomislav 2+ goals
36%
Tomislav 3+ goals
13%
Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
67%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
30%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tomislav (draw refunded)
55%
Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomislav at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 65 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomislav attack 1.49 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Tomislav defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tomislav scores more
40%
level
28%
Stupčanica Olovo scores more
32%

Tomislav at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tomislav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Tomislav 1–1 Stupčanica Olovo

Tomislav and Stupčanica Olovo drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Tomislavgrad in Tomislavgrad.