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Tomislav vs Orašje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tomislav
Tomislav
FT
1 – 1
Orašje
Orašje
10/23/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Stadion Tomislavgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tomislav57%
×Draw23%
Orašje20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomislav
1.83
Orašje
0.97

Tomislav creates 89% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 46 away

creates per match

Tomislav
1.49
Orašje
0.96

allows per match

Tomislav
0.98
Orašje
2.17

finishing

Tomislav+0.00on par
Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomislav ↓

Orašje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tomislav or draw
80%
Tomislav or Orašje
77%
Draw or Orašje
43%

Winning margin

Tomislav wins by 2+
33%
Orašje wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tomislav 1+ goals
84%
Tomislav 2+ goals
54%
Tomislav 3+ goals
28%
Orašje 1+ goals
62%
Orašje 2+ goals
25%
Orašje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tomislav (draw refunded)
74%
Orašje (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomislav at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 65 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomislav attack 1.49 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Orašje attack 0.96 + Tomislav defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tomislav scores more
57%
level
23%
Orašje scores more
20%

Tomislav at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tomislav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomislav vs Orašje

Tomislav and Orašje drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Tomislavgrad in Tomislavgrad.