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Tomislav vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tomislav
Tomislav
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goražde
Goražde
4/6/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 20Stadion Tomislavgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Tomislav48%
×Draw27%
Goražde25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomislav
1.42
Goražde
0.95

Tomislav creates 49% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 82 away

creates per match

Tomislav
1.49
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Tomislav
0.98
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Tomislav+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomislav ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tomislav or draw
75%
Tomislav or Goražde
73%
Draw or Goražde
52%

Winning margin

Tomislav wins by 2+
23%
Goražde wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tomislav 1+ goals
76%
Tomislav 2+ goals
41%
Tomislav 3+ goals
17%
Goražde 1+ goals
61%
Goražde 2+ goals
25%
Goražde 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tomislav (draw refunded)
65%
Goražde (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomislav at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 65 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomislav attack 1.49 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Goražde attack 0.91 + Tomislav defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tomislav scores more
48%
level
27%
Goražde scores more
25%

Tomislav at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tomislav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Tomislav 1–0 Goražde

Tomislav beat Goražde 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tomislavgrad in Tomislavgrad.