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Tombense vs Tupi — Serie C 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tupi
Tupi
5/13/2017Serie CSerie C · Round 1Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tombense55%
×Draw25%
Tupi19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.58
Tupi
0.82

Tombense creates 93% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.33
Tupi
0.82

allows per match

Tombense
0.83
Tupi
1.82

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Tupi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Tupi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
81%
Tombense or Tupi
75%
Draw or Tupi
45%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
29%
Tupi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
79%
Tombense 2+ goals
47%
Tombense 3+ goals
21%
Tupi 1+ goals
56%
Tupi 2+ goals
20%
Tupi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
74%
Tupi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 63 matches

Tupi away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.33 + Tupi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tupi attack 0.82 + Tombense defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tombense scores more
55%
level
25%
Tupi scores more
19%

Tombense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs Tupi

Tombense and Tupi drew 1-1 in Serie C on May 13, 2017.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais).