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Tombense vs Rio Branco ES — Serie D 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Branco ES
Rio Branco ES
5/3/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 5Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tombense44%
×Draw31%
Rio Branco ES25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.13
Rio Branco ES
0.78

Tombense creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.17
Rio Branco ES
1.22

allows per match

Tombense
0.33
Rio Branco ES
1.09

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Rio Branco ES+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Rio Branco ES →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
75%
Tombense or Rio Branco ES
69%
Draw or Rio Branco ES
56%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
18%
Rio Branco ES wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
68%
Tombense 2+ goals
31%
Tombense 3+ goals
11%
Rio Branco ES 1+ goals
54%
Rio Branco ES 2+ goals
18%
Rio Branco ES 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
63%
Rio Branco ES (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Rio Branco ES away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.17 + Rio Branco ES defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rio Branco ES attack 1.22 + Tombense defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tombense scores more
44%
level
31%
Rio Branco ES scores more
25%

Tombense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs Rio Branco ES

Tombense and Rio Branco ES drew 0-0 in Serie D on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.