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Tombense vs North Esporte — Mineiro - 1 2020

Tombense
Tombense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
North Esporte
North Esporte
1/21/2026Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Round 4Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tombense37%
×Draw29%
North Esporte33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.14
North Esporte
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.44
North Esporte
1.33

allows per match

Tombense
0.80
North Esporte
0.83

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

North Esporte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
67%
Tombense or North Esporte
71%
Draw or North Esporte
63%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
15%
North Esporte wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
68%
Tombense 2+ goals
32%
Tombense 3+ goals
11%
North Esporte 1+ goals
65%
North Esporte 2+ goals
29%
North Esporte 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
53%
North Esporte (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

North Esporte away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.44 + North Esporte defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

North Esporte attack 1.33 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tombense scores more
37%
level
29%
North Esporte scores more
33%

Tombense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 1: Tombense 0–1 North Esporte

North Esporte beat Tombense 1-0 in Mineiro - 1 on January 21, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.