Tombense 3–0 Joinville: Result & Stats | Serie C

Tombense

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Joinville

Daniel Amorim 85', 61'

Anderson 12'

4/21/2018

Serie C · Round 2Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tombense72%

×Draw20%

Joinville7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchJoinville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.41

Tombense

1.84

Joinville

0.41

Tombense creates 349% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 9 away

1.35

creates per match

0.00

0.82

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Tombense

1.35

Joinville

0.00

allows per match

Tombense

0.82

Joinville

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Joinville+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Joinville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

93%

Tombense or Joinville

80%

Draw or Joinville

28%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

45%

Joinville wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

84%

Tombense 2+ goals

55%

Tombense 3+ goals

28%

Joinville 1+ goals

34%

Joinville 2+ goals

6%

Joinville 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

91%

Joinville (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

Joinville away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.35 + Joinville defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.84

Joinville attack 0.00 + Tombense defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Tombense scores more

72%

level

20%

Joinville scores more

7%

Tombense at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Anderson

46'

Felipe Baiano← Everton Sena

57'

Marlyson← Jean Lucas

61'

Daniel Amorim

66'

Jean← Misael

73'

Felipe← Anderson Rosa

78'

Natanael← Caio

78'

Michel Schmoller← Alisson

85'

Daniel Amorim

Tombense

Joinville

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Ramón Menezes

46'▲Felipe Baiano←▼Everton Sena

73'▲Felipe←▼Anderson Rosa

78'▲Natanael←▼Caio

Tombense substitutes

BaianoFelipeNatanaelVictorBrenoBruninhoFrancismarRubensKrugerUlissesPaquetáMatheus

Manager: Matheus Costa

57'▲Marlyson←▼Jean Lucas

66'▲Jean←▼Misael

78'▲Michel Schmoller←▼Alisson

Joinville substitutes

MarlysonJeanSchmollerMatheusGustavoKaduLazio