Tombense 2–2 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Tombense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ceara

Marcelinho 90+5'

Kleiton 84'

Chrystian Barletta 10'

Erick 3'

8/26/2023

Serie B · Round 25Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tombense43%

×Draw28%

Ceara29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Tombense

1.30

Ceara

1.00

Tombense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 50 away

1.24

creates per match

1.10

0.89

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Tombense

1.24

Ceara

1.10

allows per match

Tombense

0.89

Ceara

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

71%

Tombense or Ceara

72%

Draw or Ceara

57%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

20%

Ceara wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

73%

Tombense 2+ goals

37%

Tombense 3+ goals

14%

Ceara 1+ goals

63%

Ceara 2+ goals

26%

Ceara 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

60%

Ceara (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.24 + Ceara defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ceara attack 1.10 + Tombense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tombense scores more

43%

level

28%

Ceara scores more

29%

Tombense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Kleiton

Tombense · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

Erick↳ Danilo Barcelos

10'

Chrystian Barletta↳ Erick

20'

Richardson

28'

Cléber← Saulo Mineiro

46'

Egídio← Emerson

46'

Guilherme Santos← João Pedro

46'

Fernandão← Alexandre Jesus

46'

Caíque← Chrystian Barletta

46'

Zé Ricardo← Richardson

69'

Keké← Daniel Amorim

75'

Janderson← Erick

78'

Warley

84'

Kleiton↳ Fernandão

87'

Marcelinho← Bruno Silva

90+3'

Danilo Barcelos

90+1'

Breno← Jean Carlos

90+5'

Marcelinho↳ Egídio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TombenseCeara

Overview

67%Possession33%

21Total Shots6

10Corners4

10Fouls21

Shots

21Total Shots6

3On Target4

10Off Target0

8Blocked2

10Inside Box5

11Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

458Total Passes237

385Accurate Passes161

84%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls21

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1