Tombense 2–0 Brusque: Result & Stats | Serie C

Tombense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brusque

Ibson 54'

Keké 47'

11/21/2020

Serie C · Round 16Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tombense39%

×Draw29%

Brusque32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.04

Tombense

1.18

Brusque

1.04

Tombense creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

1.20

creates per match

1.08

1.00

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tombense

1.20

Brusque

1.08

allows per match

Tombense

1.00

Brusque

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

68%

Tombense or Brusque

71%

Draw or Brusque

61%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

17%

Brusque wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

69%

Tombense 2+ goals

33%

Tombense 3+ goals

12%

Brusque 1+ goals

65%

Brusque 2+ goals

28%

Brusque 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

55%

Brusque (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Brusque away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.20 + Brusque defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Brusque attack 1.08 + Tombense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tombense scores more

39%

level

29%

Brusque scores more

32%

Tombense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Carlos

17'

Dida← Alex Sandro

46'

47'

48'

54'

64'

Everton← Denner

72'

Luan← Ruan Costa

75'

Eduardo← Rubens

75'

Zé Vitor← Marquinhos

86'

Fio← Jefferson Renan

87'

Paquetá← Daniel Cruz

Tombense

Brusque

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Julinho Camargo

46'▲Keké←▼Lucas Falcão

64'▲Everton←▼Denner

75'▲Eduardo←▼Rubens

75'▲Zé Vitor←▼Marquinhos

87'▲Paquetá←▼Daniel Cruz

Tombense substitutes

KekéEvertonEduardoVitorPaquetáCariocaJhemersonManoelClaudinoMayconLopesOliveira

Manager: Jerson Testoni

17'▲Dida←▼Alex Sandro

72'▲Luan←▼Ruan Costa

86'▲Fio←▼Jefferson Renan

Brusque substitutes

DidaLuanFioRuan