Tombense 1–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Tombense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

Egídio 70'

Gustavo Coutinho 17'

4/29/2023

Serie B · Round 3Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tombense42%

×Draw29%

Atletico Goianiense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.97

Tombense

1.23

Atletico Goianiense

0.97

Tombense creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

1.24

creates per match

1.05

0.89

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Tombense

1.24

Atletico Goianiense

1.05

allows per match

Tombense

0.89

Atletico Goianiense

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

71%

Tombense or Atletico Goianiense

71%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

58%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

71%

Tombense 2+ goals

35%

Tombense 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

62%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

59%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.24 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.05 + Tombense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tombense scores more

42%

level

29%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

29%

Tombense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

João Pedro

Tombense · M

8.3

Match Events

17'

Gustavo Coutinho

29'

Daniel Amorim← Fernandão

39'

43'

45+2'

46'

59'

Egídio← Daniel Amorim

59'

Luiz Fernando← Matheus Frizzo

65'

Airton← Shaylon

65'

Renato← Bruno Tubarão

70'

Egídio↳ Guilherme Santos

77'

Matheus Régis← Matheus Sales

81'

Renan← Heron

83'

Pierre← Alex Sandro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TombenseAtletico

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots13

10Corners7

10Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots13

5On Target4

8Off Target6

5Blocked3

11Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

390Total Passes351

333Accurate Passes299

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1

Serie B: Tombense 1–1 Atletico Goianiense

Tombense and Atletico Goianiense drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 29, 2023.

Goals: Gustavo Coutinho (17'), Egídio (70').

Tombense controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Soares de Azevedo in Muriaé, Minas Gerais.

Tombense vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Tombense 1–1 Atletico Goianiense