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Tombense vs Anápolis — Serie C 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Anápolis
Anápolis
6/1/2025Serie CSerie C · Round 8Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tombense55%
×Draw27%
Anápolis18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.46
Anápolis
0.70

Tombense creates 109% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.32
Anápolis
0.59

allows per match

Tombense
0.80
Anápolis
1.59

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Anápolis+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Anápolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
82%
Tombense or Anápolis
73%
Draw or Anápolis
45%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
28%
Anápolis wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
77%
Tombense 2+ goals
43%
Tombense 3+ goals
18%
Anápolis 1+ goals
50%
Anápolis 2+ goals
16%
Anápolis 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
76%
Anápolis (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Anápolis away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.32 + Anápolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Anápolis attack 0.59 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tombense scores more
55%
level
27%
Anápolis scores more
18%

Tombense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: Tombense 1–1 Anápolis

Tombense and Anápolis drew 1-1 in Serie C on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.