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Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Wisła Sandomierz — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
5/21/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów42%
×Draw23%
Wisła Sandomierz35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.79
Wisła Sandomierz
1.63

Tomasovia Tomaszów creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.24
Wisła Sandomierz
1.19

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.06
Wisła Sandomierz
2.35

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par
Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw
65%
Tomasovia Tomaszów or Wisła Sandomierz
77%
Draw or Wisła Sandomierz
58%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
22%
Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
83%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
53%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
26%
Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
80%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
48%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
54%
Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.79

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
42%
level
23%
Wisła Sandomierz scores more
35%

Tomasovia Tomaszów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tomasovia Tomaszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Tomasovia Tomaszów 1–2 Wisła Sandomierz

Wisła Sandomierz beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tomaszów Lubelski.