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Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Stal Stalowa Wola — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
FT
0 – 3
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
10/10/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów23%
×Draw22%
Stal Stalowa Wola54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.16
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.90

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.24
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.74

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.06
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.07

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw
46%
Tomasovia Tomaszów or Stal Stalowa Wola
78%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
77%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
9%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
69%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
32%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
11%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
85%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
56%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
30%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
23%
level
22%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
54%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Tomasovia Tomaszów 0–3 Stal Stalowa Wola

Stal Stalowa Wola beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tomaszów Lubelski.