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Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
FT
2 – 3
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
8/18/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów27%
×Draw23%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.27
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.79

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.24
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.06
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw
50%
Tomasovia Tomaszów or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
77%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
73%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
11%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
72%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
36%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
14%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
83%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
53%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
35%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
27%
level
23%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
50%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tomaszów Lubelski.