Tomasovia Tomaszów 1–3 Podhale Nowy Targ

Tomasovia Tomaszów

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Podhale Nowy Targ

6/5/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów30%

×Draw24%

Podhale Nowy Targ46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tomasovia TomaszówExpected goals in this matchPodhale Nowy Targ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.72

Tomasovia Tomaszów

1.36

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.72

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

1.24

creates per match

1.38

2.06

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów

1.24

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.38

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów

2.06

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw

54%

Tomasovia Tomaszów or Podhale Nowy Targ

76%

Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ

70%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+

13%

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals

74%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals

39%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals

16%

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals

82%

Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals

51%

Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)

40%

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more

30%

level

24%

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more

46%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff