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Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
3/13/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów36%
×Draw23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.56
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.24
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.06
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw
59%
Tomasovia Tomaszów or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
77%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
64%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
17%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
79%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
46%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
21%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
81%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
50%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
47%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
36%
level
23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
41%

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Tomasovia Tomaszów 1–2 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tomaszów Lubelski.