Tomasovia Tomaszów 2–2 Korona Rzeszow

Tomasovia Tomaszów

FT

2 – 2

Korona Rzeszow

9/25/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów40%

×Draw23%

Korona Rzeszow37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tomasovia TomaszówExpected goals in this matchKorona Rzeszow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.65

Tomasovia Tomaszów

1.74

Korona Rzeszow

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.24

creates per match

1.24

2.06

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów

1.24

Korona Rzeszow

1.24

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów

2.06

Korona Rzeszow

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Korona Rzeszow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw

63%

Tomasovia Tomaszów or Korona Rzeszow

77%

Draw or Korona Rzeszow

60%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+

21%

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals

82%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals

52%

Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals

25%

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals

81%

Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals

49%

Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)

52%

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Korona Rzeszow away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.74

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more

40%

level

23%

Korona Rzeszow scores more

37%

Tomasovia Tomaszów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tomasovia Tomaszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff