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Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Avia Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
5/8/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów22%
×Draw22%
Avia Świdnik56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.18
Avia Świdnik
1.98

Avia Świdnik creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.24
Avia Świdnik
1.89

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.06
Avia Świdnik
1.12

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw
44%
Tomasovia Tomaszów or Avia Świdnik
78%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
78%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
9%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
69%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
33%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
12%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
86%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
59%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
29%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
22%
level
22%
Avia Świdnik scores more
56%

Avia Świdnik at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Avia Świdnik

Avia Świdnik beat Tomasovia Tomaszów 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tomaszów Lubelski.