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Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Tomasovia Tomaszów
Tomasovia Tomaszów
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Łagów
Łagów
6/18/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomasovia Tomaszów25%
×Draw24%
Łagów51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.13
Łagów
1.71

Łagów creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
1.24
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Tomasovia Tomaszów
2.06
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Tomasovia Tomaszów+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomasovia Tomaszów ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tomasovia Tomaszów or draw
49%
Tomasovia Tomaszów or Łagów
76%
Draw or Łagów
75%

Winning margin

Tomasovia Tomaszów wins by 2+
10%
Łagów wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tomasovia Tomaszów 1+ goals
68%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 2+ goals
31%
Tomasovia Tomaszów 3+ goals
11%
Łagów 1+ goals
82%
Łagów 2+ goals
51%
Łagów 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tomasovia Tomaszów (draw refunded)
33%
Łagów (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomasovia Tomaszów at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomasovia Tomaszów attack 1.24 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Łagów attack 1.36 + Tomasovia Tomaszów defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tomasovia Tomaszów scores more
25%
level
24%
Łagów scores more
51%

Łagów at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomasovia Tomaszów vs Łagów

Tomasovia Tomaszów beat Łagów 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tomaszów Lubelski.