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Tomares vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Tomares
Tomares
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
Mateo Ibáñez 70'
José Gordillo 56'
Alberto Marcos 33'
Diego Vargas 4'
5/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 32Estadio Municipal San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tomares49%
×Draw26%
La Palma25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomares
1.53
La Palma
1.02

Tomares creates 50% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 48 away

creates per match

Tomares
1.40
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Tomares
1.16
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Tomares+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomares ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tomares or draw
75%
Tomares or La Palma
74%
Draw or La Palma
51%

Winning margin

Tomares wins by 2+
25%
La Palma wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tomares 1+ goals
78%
Tomares 2+ goals
45%
Tomares 3+ goals
20%
La Palma 1+ goals
64%
La Palma 2+ goals
27%
La Palma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tomares (draw refunded)
66%
La Palma (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomares at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomares attack 1.40 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

La Palma attack 0.88 + Tomares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tomares scores more
49%
level
26%
La Palma scores more
25%

Tomares at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tomares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Diego Vargas
33'
Alberto Marcos
56'
José Gordillo
63'
Diego Luís← Manolo Suárez
63'
Sergio Barrera← Manu Picón
66'
Pulet← Alberto Moya
66'
Mateo Ibáñez← Álex Rubio
70'
Mateo Ibáñez
71'
Daniel Robledo← Manu Arcos
73'
Tole← José Gordillo
73'
Francisco Trocoli← Rufo
77'
Luismi← José Vela
80'
Pinto← Carlos Rojas
80'
Juan Martín← Ángel Luque
Tomares
La
Ismael Falcón
Falcón
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
Navarro
Manolo Suárez
▼
Suárez
Pana
Pana
Manu Picón
▼
Picón
Carlos Rojas
▼
Rojas
Moisés Aguilar
Aguilar
Ángel Luque
▼
Luque
Manu Arcos
▼
Arcos
Diego Vargas
⚽
Vargas
Álex Carmona
Carmona
Manu León
León
Sergio Buzón
Buzón
Alberto Marcos
⚽
Marcos
José Vela
▼
Vela
José Gordillo
⚽
▼
Gordillo
Guille Solis
Solis
Rufo
▼
Rufo
Alberto Moya
▼
Moya
Pablo Osborne
Osborne
Álex Rubio
▼
Rubio
Manuel Luque
Manager: Manuel Luque
66'▲Pulet←▼Alberto Moya
66'▲Mateo Ibáñez←▼Álex Rubio
73'▲Tole←▼José Gordillo
73'▲Francisco Trocoli←▼Rufo
77'▲Luismi←▼José Vela

Tomares substitutes

PuletIbáñezToleTrocoliLuismi
Dioni Arroyo
Manager: Dioni Arroyo
63'▲Diego Luís←▼Manolo Suárez
63'▲Sergio Barrera←▼Manu Picón
71'▲Daniel Robledo←▼Manu Arcos
80'▲Pinto←▼Carlos Rojas
80'▲Juan Martín←▼Ángel Luque

La Palma substitutes

LuísBarreraRobledoPintoMartín

Match Recap: Tomares vs La Palma

Tomares beat La Palma 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 1, 2025.

Goals: Diego Vargas (4'), Alberto Marcos (33'), José Gordillo (56'), Mateo Ibáñez (70').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Sebastián in Tomares.