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Tomares vs Inter Sevilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Tomares
Tomares
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
11/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Estadio Municipal San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tomares52%
×Draw25%
Inter Sevilla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomares
1.61
Inter Sevilla
0.99

Tomares creates 63% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tomares
1.40
Inter Sevilla
0.82

allows per match

Tomares
1.16
Inter Sevilla
1.82

finishing

Tomares+0.00on par
Inter Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomares ↓

Inter Sevilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tomares or draw
77%
Tomares or Inter Sevilla
75%
Draw or Inter Sevilla
48%

Winning margin

Tomares wins by 2+
27%
Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tomares 1+ goals
80%
Tomares 2+ goals
48%
Tomares 3+ goals
22%
Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
63%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
26%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tomares (draw refunded)
69%
Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomares at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Inter Sevilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomares attack 1.40 + Inter Sevilla defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Inter Sevilla attack 0.82 + Tomares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tomares scores more
52%
level
25%
Inter Sevilla scores more
23%

Tomares at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tomares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomares vs Inter Sevilla

Tomares beat Inter Sevilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Sebastián in Tomares.