Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tomares vs Dos Hermanas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Tomares
Tomares
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dos Hermanas
Dos Hermanas
1/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Estadio Municipal San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tomares38%
×Draw25%
Dos Hermanas37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomares
1.46
Dos Hermanas
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tomares
1.40
Dos Hermanas
1.74

allows per match

Tomares
1.16
Dos Hermanas
1.53

finishing

Tomares+0.00on par
Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomares ↓

Dos Hermanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tomares or draw
63%
Tomares or Dos Hermanas
75%
Draw or Dos Hermanas
62%

Winning margin

Tomares wins by 2+
18%
Dos Hermanas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tomares 1+ goals
77%
Tomares 2+ goals
43%
Tomares 3+ goals
18%
Dos Hermanas 1+ goals
77%
Dos Hermanas 2+ goals
42%
Dos Hermanas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tomares (draw refunded)
50%
Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomares at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomares attack 1.40 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Tomares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tomares scores more
38%
level
25%
Dos Hermanas scores more
37%

Tomares at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tomares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Tomares 2–1 Dos Hermanas

Tomares beat Dos Hermanas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Sebastián in Tomares.