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Tomares vs Ceuta II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Tomares
Tomares
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ceuta II
Ceuta II
2/2/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Estadio Municipal San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Tomares46%
×Draw27%
Ceuta II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomares
1.40
Ceuta II
0.99

Tomares creates 41% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 82 away

creates per match

Tomares
1.40
Ceuta II
0.82

allows per match

Tomares
1.16
Ceuta II
1.40

finishing

Tomares+0.00on par
Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomares ↓

Ceuta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tomares or draw
73%
Tomares or Ceuta II
73%
Draw or Ceuta II
54%

Winning margin

Tomares wins by 2+
22%
Ceuta II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tomares 1+ goals
75%
Tomares 2+ goals
41%
Tomares 3+ goals
17%
Ceuta II 1+ goals
63%
Ceuta II 2+ goals
26%
Ceuta II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tomares (draw refunded)
64%
Ceuta II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomares at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomares attack 1.40 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Tomares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tomares scores more
46%
level
27%
Ceuta II scores more
27%

Tomares at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tomares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomares vs Ceuta II

Tomares and Ceuta II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Sebastián in Tomares.