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Tomares vs Cabecense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Tomares
Tomares
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cabecense
Cabecense
2/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 18Estadio Municipal San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Tomares56%
×Draw25%
Cabecense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomares
1.59
Cabecense
0.82

Tomares creates 94% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 47 away

creates per match

Tomares
1.40
Cabecense
0.49

allows per match

Tomares
1.16
Cabecense
1.79

finishing

Tomares+0.00on par
Cabecense+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomares ↓

Cabecense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tomares or draw
81%
Tomares or Cabecense
75%
Draw or Cabecense
44%

Winning margin

Tomares wins by 2+
30%
Cabecense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tomares 1+ goals
80%
Tomares 2+ goals
47%
Tomares 3+ goals
21%
Cabecense 1+ goals
56%
Cabecense 2+ goals
20%
Cabecense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tomares (draw refunded)
74%
Cabecense (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomares at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Cabecense away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomares attack 1.40 + Cabecense defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Cabecense attack 0.49 + Tomares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tomares scores more
56%
level
25%
Cabecense scores more
19%

Tomares at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tomares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tomares vs Cabecense

Tomares beat Cabecense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Sebastián in Tomares.