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Tomares vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Tomares
Tomares
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 7Estadio Municipal San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tomares40%
×Draw30%
Atlético Central30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomares
1.16
Atlético Central
0.96

Tomares creates 21% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 35 away

creates per match

Tomares
1.40
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Tomares
1.16
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Tomares+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomares ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tomares or draw
70%
Tomares or Atlético Central
70%
Draw or Atlético Central
60%

Winning margin

Tomares wins by 2+
17%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tomares 1+ goals
69%
Tomares 2+ goals
32%
Tomares 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tomares (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomares at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 50 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomares attack 1.40 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Tomares defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tomares scores more
40%
level
30%
Atlético Central scores more
30%

Tomares at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tomares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tomares 0 – 0 Atlético Central

Tomares and Atlético Central drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Sebastián in Tomares.