TOM Tomsk 1–0 Veles: Result & Stats | First League

TOM Tomsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Veles

E. Makeev 8' (OG)

11/13/2021

First League · Round 22Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

TOM Tomsk45%

×Draw29%

Veles26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOM TomskExpected goals in this matchVeles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.91

TOM Tomsk

1.28

Veles

0.91

TOM Tomsk creates 41% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 58 away

1.22

creates per match

0.95

0.86

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

TOM Tomsk

1.22

Veles

0.95

allows per match

TOM Tomsk

0.86

Veles

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOM Tomsk ↓

Veles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

TOM Tomsk or draw

74%

TOM Tomsk or Veles

71%

Draw or Veles

55%

Winning margin

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+

21%

Veles wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals

72%

TOM Tomsk 2+ goals

37%

TOM Tomsk 3+ goals

14%

Veles 1+ goals

60%

Veles 2+ goals

23%

Veles 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)

63%

Veles (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOM Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Veles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOM Tomsk attack 1.22 + Veles defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.28

Veles attack 0.95 + TOM Tomsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

TOM Tomsk scores more

45%

level

29%

Veles scores more

26%

TOM Tomsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

E. MakeevOwn goal

29'

Aleksandr Osipov

34'

N. Korobov← M. Apshatsev

42'

Sergei Zuykov

46'

V. Kabakhidze← A. Batsuev

59'

Mamadou Maiga

64'

A. Vulfov← K. Kertanov

65'

D. Lopatin← A. Smith

65'

M. Mitrishev← D. Ezhkov

73'

Pavel Kudryashov

77'

K. Antipov← K. Korzh

77'

O. Leonov← P. Kudryashov

86'

N. Tarasov← E. Makeev

87'

Vladimir Kabakhidze

90'

Konstantin Antipov

TOM3-5-2

Veles4-3-1-2

33

▼

Ezhkov

7

▼

8

98

20

10

▼

Batsuev

11

▼

Kertanov

2

Korotkov

5

Stamenkov

34

🥅

▼

35

35

23

2

80

99

▼

72

96

61

16

10

▼

Korzh

9

▼

Kudryasho

Manager: S. Zhukov

34'▲N. Korobov←▼M. Apshatsev

77'▲K. Antipov←▼K. Korzh

77'▲O. Leonov←▼P. Kudryashov

TOM Tomsk substitutes

21Korobov71Antipov75Leonov17Radostev20Dmitriev33Stanisavljević70Bezzubov

Manager: A. Kulikov

46'▲V. Kabakhidze←▼A. Batsuev

64'▲A. Vulfov←▼K. Kertanov

65'▲D. Lopatin←▼A. Smith

65'▲M. Mitrishev←▼D. Ezhkov

86'▲N. Tarasov←▼E. Makeev

Veles substitutes

81Kabakhidze69Vulfov77Lopatin95Mitrishev13Tarasov6Anisimov16Vlasov97Maltsev

First League: TOM Tomsk 1–0 Veles

TOM Tomsk beat Veles 1-0 in First League on November 13, 2021.

Goals: E. Makeev (8' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Tomsk.

TOM Tomsk vs Veles — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: TOM Tomsk 1–0 Veles