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TOM Tomsk vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
CANC
00:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
4/12/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TOM Tomsk38%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Moskva33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOM Tomsk
1.14
Torpedo Moskva
1.03

TOM Tomsk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 104 away

creates per match

TOM Tomsk
1.22
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

TOM Tomsk
0.85
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOM Tomsk ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

TOM Tomsk or draw
67%
TOM Tomsk or Torpedo Moskva
71%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
62%

Winning margin

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
16%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
68%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
32%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
64%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
28%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
54%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOM Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOM Tomsk attack 1.22 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + TOM Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

TOM Tomsk scores more
38%
level
29%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
33%

TOM Tomsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TOM Tomsk host Torpedo Moskva

April 12, 2020: TOM Tomsk take on Torpedo Moskva in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.