TOM Tomsk 2–1 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats

TOM Tomsk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tekstilshchik

7/28/2019

First League · Round 5Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

TOM Tomsk54%

×Draw26%

Tekstilshchik20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOM TomskExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.77

TOM Tomsk

1.48

Tekstilshchik

0.77

TOM Tomsk creates 92% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 54 away

1.22

creates per match

0.70

0.85

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

TOM Tomsk

1.22

Tekstilshchik

0.70

allows per match

TOM Tomsk

0.85

Tekstilshchik

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOM Tomsk ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

TOM Tomsk or draw

80%

TOM Tomsk or Tekstilshchik

74%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

46%

Winning margin

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+

28%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals

77%

TOM Tomsk 2+ goals

43%

TOM Tomsk 3+ goals

19%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

54%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

18%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)

73%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOM Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.74 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOM Tomsk attack 1.22 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tekstilshchik attack 0.70 + TOM Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

TOM Tomsk scores more

54%

level

26%

Tekstilshchik scores more

20%

TOM Tomsk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff