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Tekstilshchik vs TOM Tomsk — First League 2018

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
11/13/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tekstilshchik33%
×Draw28%
TOM Tomsk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.13
TOM Tomsk
1.26

TOM Tomsk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 74 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.94
TOM Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.61
TOM Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

TOM Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
61%
Tekstilshchik or TOM Tomsk
72%
Draw or TOM Tomsk
67%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
13%
TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
68%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
31%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
11%
TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
72%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
36%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
46%
TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

TOM Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.94 + TOM Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

TOM Tomsk attack 0.91 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
33%
level
28%
TOM Tomsk scores more
39%

TOM Tomsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tekstilshchik vs TOM Tomsk

TOM Tomsk beat Tekstilshchik 2-0 in First League on November 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.