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Tom Tomsk vs Sibir — First League 2018

Tom Tomsk
Tom Tomsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sibir
Sibir
10/6/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Trud (Tomsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tom Tomsk51%
×Draw28%
Sibir22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tom Tomsk
1.39
Sibir
0.80

Tom Tomsk creates 74% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tom Tomsk
1.22
Sibir
0.75

allows per match

Tom Tomsk
0.85
Sibir
1.55

finishing

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par
Sibir+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tom Tomsk ↓

Sibir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tom Tomsk or draw
78%
Tom Tomsk or Sibir
72%
Draw or Sibir
49%

Winning margin

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+
25%
Sibir wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals
75%
Tom Tomsk 2+ goals
40%
Tom Tomsk 3+ goals
16%
Sibir 1+ goals
55%
Sibir 2+ goals
19%
Sibir 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)
70%
Sibir (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tom Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

Sibir away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tom Tomsk attack 1.22 + Sibir defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sibir attack 0.75 + Tom Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tom Tomsk scores more
51%
level
28%
Sibir scores more
22%

Tom Tomsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tom Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tom Tomsk 1–1 Sibir

Tom Tomsk and Sibir drew 1-1 in First League on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Trud (Tomsk).