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TOM Tomsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2018

TOM Tomsk
TOM Tomsk
FT
3 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
9/27/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TOM Tomsk47%
×Draw28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOM Tomsk
1.35
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.92

TOM Tomsk creates 47% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 123 away

creates per match

TOM Tomsk
1.22
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

TOM Tomsk
0.85
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.48

finishing

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOM Tomsk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

TOM Tomsk or draw
74%
TOM Tomsk or Shinnik Yaroslavl
72%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
53%

Winning margin

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+
22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals
74%
TOM Tomsk 2+ goals
39%
TOM Tomsk 3+ goals
15%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
60%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
23%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)
65%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOM Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOM Tomsk attack 1.22 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + TOM Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

TOM Tomsk scores more
47%
level
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
26%

TOM Tomsk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: TOM Tomsk 3–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl

TOM Tomsk beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-0 in First League on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Tomsk.