Tom Tomsk 1–0 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats

Tom Tomsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

PFC Sochi

10/13/2018

First League · Round 16Stadion Trud (Tomsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tom Tomsk36%

×Draw28%

PFC Sochi36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tom TomskExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

Tom Tomsk

1.15

PFC Sochi

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 38 away

1.22

creates per match

1.45

0.85

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Tom Tomsk

1.22

PFC Sochi

1.45

allows per match

Tom Tomsk

0.85

PFC Sochi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tom Tomsk ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tom Tomsk or draw

64%

Tom Tomsk or PFC Sochi

72%

Draw or PFC Sochi

64%

Winning margin

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+

15%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals

68%

Tom Tomsk 2+ goals

32%

Tom Tomsk 3+ goals

11%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

68%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

32%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)

50%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tom Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tom Tomsk attack 1.22 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Tom Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tom Tomsk scores more

36%

level

28%

PFC Sochi scores more

36%

Tom Tomsk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tom Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff