TOM Tomsk 1–2 Orenburg: Result & Stats

TOM Tomsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Orenburg

8/8/2021

First League · Round 5Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

TOM Tomsk31%

×Draw28%

Orenburg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOM TomskExpected goals in this matchOrenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.27

TOM Tomsk

1.08

Orenburg

1.27

Orenburg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 40 away

1.22

creates per match

1.70

0.85

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

TOM Tomsk

1.22

Orenburg

1.70

allows per match

TOM Tomsk

0.85

Orenburg

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOM Tomsk ↓

Orenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TOM Tomsk or draw

59%

TOM Tomsk or Orenburg

72%

Draw or Orenburg

69%

Winning margin

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+

12%

Orenburg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals

66%

TOM Tomsk 2+ goals

29%

TOM Tomsk 3+ goals

10%

Orenburg 1+ goals

72%

Orenburg 2+ goals

36%

Orenburg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)

44%

Orenburg (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOM Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 74 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOM Tomsk attack 1.22 + Orenburg defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Orenburg attack 1.70 + TOM Tomsk defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TOM Tomsk scores more

31%

level

28%

Orenburg scores more

41%

Orenburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff