TOM Tomsk 1–1 Nizhny Novgorod: Result & Stats

TOM Tomsk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nizhny Novgorod

A. Simonyan 26' (pen)

M. Yansane 13'

5/15/2021

First League · Round 42Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

TOM Tomsk36%

×Draw30%

Nizhny Novgorod34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TOM TomskExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.02

TOM Tomsk

1.05

Nizhny Novgorod

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 53 away

1.22

creates per match

1.19

0.86

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

TOM Tomsk

1.22

Nizhny Novgorod

1.19

allows per match

TOM Tomsk

0.86

Nizhny Novgorod

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TOM Tomsk+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOM Tomsk ↓

Nizhny Novgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

TOM Tomsk or draw

66%

TOM Tomsk or Nizhny Novgorod

70%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod

64%

Winning margin

TOM Tomsk wins by 2+

14%

Nizhny Novgorod wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

TOM Tomsk 1+ goals

65%

TOM Tomsk 2+ goals

28%

TOM Tomsk 3+ goals

9%

Nizhny Novgorod 1+ goals

64%

Nizhny Novgorod 2+ goals

27%

Nizhny Novgorod 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

TOM Tomsk (draw refunded)

51%

Nizhny Novgorod (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOM Tomsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOM Tomsk attack 1.22 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.19 + TOM Tomsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

TOM Tomsk scores more

36%

level

30%

Nizhny Novgorod scores more

34%

TOM Tomsk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "TOM Tomsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

13'

19'

23'

26'

A. SimonyanPenalty

45'

Kirill Gotsuk

46'

D. Arapov← E. Konyukhov

46'

A. Galadzhan← I. Gorbunov

51'

Artem Simonyan

62'

Ilya Zuev

63'

M. Dmitriev← D. Davydov

63'

D. Mildzikhov← I. Lapshov

68'

I. Berkovskiy← N. Kalinskiy

75'

L. Goglichidze← A. Shumskikh

79'

A. Stavpets← I. Temnikov

90'

Kirill Malyarov

TOM4-3-3

Nizhny4-5-1

10

⚽

Yansane

17

▼

Gorbunov

78

▼

Kalinskiy

37

Sharipov

11

▼

22

7

24

3

5

▼

Shumskikh

90

Smirnov

14

▼

Konyukhov

23

Penchikov

42

▼

58

29

6

10

⚽

Simonyan

19

Talalay

17

Kosarev

69

▼

Davydov

86

Krivtsov

Manager: A. Kerzhakov

46'▲D. Arapov←▼E. Konyukhov

63'▲M. Dmitriev←▼D. Davydov

63'▲D. Mildzikhov←▼I. Lapshov

TOM Tomsk substitutes

35Arapov20Dmitriev52Mildzikhov7Ennin8Andreev9Fayzullin11Tsikaridze13Leonov63Zubchikhin

Manager: A. Khazov

46'▲A. Galadzhan←▼I. Gorbunov

68'▲I. Berkovskiy←▼N. Kalinskiy

75'▲L. Goglichidze←▼A. Shumskikh

79'▲A. Stavpets←▼I. Temnikov

Nizhny Novgorod substitutes

9Galadzhan88Berkovskiy91Goglichidze61Stavpets8Popov14Sultonov23Zuykov98Yugaldin99Sysuev