SC Freiburg 2–4 1899 Hoffenheim: Result & Stats

SC Freiburg

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

1899 Hoffenheim

F. Niederlechner 77'

L. Höler 42'

K. Demirbay 85'

A. Kramarić 72', 59' (pen)

Joelinton 19'

1/26/2019

Bundesliga · Round 19Schwarzwald-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

SC Freiburg48%

×Draw24%

1899 Hoffenheim28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC FreiburgExpected goals in this match1899 Hoffenheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.19

SC Freiburg

1.65

1899 Hoffenheim

1.19

SC Freiburg creates 39% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 27 away

1.55

creates per match

1.21

1.16

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

SC Freiburg

1.55

1899 Hoffenheim

1.21

allows per match

SC Freiburg

1.16

1899 Hoffenheim

1.75

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

SC Freiburg+0.33scores more

1899 Hoffenheim+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freiburg ↓

1899 Hoffenheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

SC Freiburg or draw

72%

SC Freiburg or 1899 Hoffenheim

76%

Draw or 1899 Hoffenheim

52%

Winning margin

SC Freiburg wins by 2+

25%

1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SC Freiburg 1+ goals

81%

SC Freiburg 2+ goals

49%

SC Freiburg 3+ goals

23%

1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals

70%

1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals

33%

1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SC Freiburg (draw refunded)

64%

1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freiburg at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

1899 Hoffenheim away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freiburg attack 1.55 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.21 + SC Freiburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SC Freiburg scores more

48%

level

24%

1899 Hoffenheim scores more

28%

SC Freiburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SC Freiburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Demirbay

1899 Hoffenheim · M

8.8

Match Events

19'

37'

42'

50'

59'

A. KramarićPenalty

64'

S. Posch← Á. Szalai

65'

L. Waldschmidt← L. Höler

66'

F. Niederlechner← P. Stenzel

72'

A. Kramarić↳ K. Demirbay

75'

Y. Ravet← J. Gondorf

77'

N. Amiri← D. Geiger

77'

F. Niederlechner↳ C. Günter

85'

K. Demirbay↳ Joelinton

89'

J. Brenet← N. Schulz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SC1899

Overview

42%Possession58%

20Total Shots16

6Corners1

17Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots16

8On Target11

6Off Target4

6Blocked1

12Inside Box9

8Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

359Total Passes503

262Accurate Passes410

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls16

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0