1899 Hoffenheim 0–0 SC Freiburg: Result & Stats

1899 Hoffenheim

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SC Freiburg

9/18/2022

Bundesliga · Round 7PreZero Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

1899 Hoffenheim46%

×Draw24%

SC Freiburg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1899 HoffenheimExpected goals in this matchSC Freiburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.31

1899 Hoffenheim

1.67

SC Freiburg

1.31

1899 Hoffenheim creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

1.64

creates per match

1.12

1.51

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

1899 Hoffenheim

1.64

SC Freiburg

1.12

allows per match

1899 Hoffenheim

1.51

SC Freiburg

1.71

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

1899 Hoffenheim+0.07on par

SC Freiburg-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1899 Hoffenheim ↓

SC Freiburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

1899 Hoffenheim or draw

70%

1899 Hoffenheim or SC Freiburg

76%

Draw or SC Freiburg

54%

Winning margin

1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+

24%

SC Freiburg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals

81%

1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals

50%

1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals

23%

SC Freiburg 1+ goals

73%

SC Freiburg 2+ goals

38%

SC Freiburg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)

60%

SC Freiburg (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1899 Hoffenheim at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.51 · 28 matches

SC Freiburg away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.64 + SC Freiburg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

SC Freiburg attack 1.12 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1899 Hoffenheim scores more

46%

level

24%

SC Freiburg scores more

30%

1899 Hoffenheim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "1899 Hoffenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

O. Baumann

1899 Hoffenheim · G

7.9

Match Events

56'

Christian Günter

64'

M. Damar← D. Geiger

64'

M. Dabbur← C. Baumgartner

78'

Jeong Woo-Yeong← D. Kyereh

78'

N. Weißhaupt← V. Grifo

78'

80'

80'

81'

85'

N. Petersen← M. Gregoritsch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1899SC

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots14

5Corners3

15Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target4

5Off Target7

2Blocked3

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

465Total Passes481

370Accurate Passes387

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2