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Toluca vs Mazatlán — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mazatlán
Mazatlán
9/28/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Toluca59%
×Draw22%
Mazatlán19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.96
Mazatlán
1.03

Toluca creates 90% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 103 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Mazatlán
0.89

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Mazatlán
1.86

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Mazatlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
81%
Toluca or Mazatlán
78%
Draw or Mazatlán
41%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
35%
Mazatlán wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
86%
Toluca 2+ goals
58%
Toluca 3+ goals
31%
Mazatlán 1+ goals
64%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
28%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
75%
Mazatlán (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.96

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Toluca scores more
59%
level
22%
Mazatlán scores more
19%

Toluca at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toluca vs Mazatlán

Toluca beat Mazatlán 3-1 in Liga MX on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca.