Toluca 2–3 CS Herediano: Result & Stats

Toluca

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

CS Herediano

2/16/2024

CONCACAF Champions League · 1st RoundEstadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Toluca64%

×Draw18%

CS Herediano18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolucaExpected goals in this matchCS Herediano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.34

Toluca

2.62

CS Herediano

1.34

Toluca creates 96% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.80

creates per match

1.29

1.40

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Toluca

2.80

CS Herediano

1.29

allows per match

Toluca

1.40

CS Herediano

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par

CS Herediano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

CS Herediano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Toluca or draw

82%

Toluca or CS Herediano

82%

Draw or CS Herediano

36%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+

43%

CS Herediano wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals

93%

Toluca 2+ goals

73%

Toluca 3+ goals

48%

CS Herediano 1+ goals

74%

CS Herediano 2+ goals

39%

CS Herediano 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)

78%

CS Herediano (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

CS Herediano away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.80 + CS Herediano defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.62

CS Herediano attack 1.29 + Toluca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Toluca scores more

64%

level

18%

CS Herediano scores more

18%

Toluca at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff