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Toluca vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
4/20/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Toluca36%
×Draw26%
Cruz Azul37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.31
Cruz Azul
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Toluca
1.53
Cruz Azul
1.73

allows per match

Toluca
0.93
Cruz Azul
1.10

finishing

Toluca+0.18scores more
Cruz Azul+0.35scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
63%
Toluca or Cruz Azul
74%
Draw or Cruz Azul
64%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
16%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
73%
Toluca 2+ goals
38%
Toluca 3+ goals
14%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
74%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
38%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
49%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 1.53 + Cruz Azul defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cruz Azul attack 1.73 + Toluca defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Toluca scores more
36%
level
26%
Cruz Azul scores more
37%

Cruz Azul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Toluca 2–2 Cruz Azul

Toluca and Cruz Azul drew 2-2 in Liga MX on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.