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Toluca vs Atletico San Luis — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
8/25/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Toluca50%
×Draw24%
Atletico San Luis27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.74
Atletico San Luis
1.21

Toluca creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Toluca
1.53
Atletico San Luis
1.48

allows per match

Toluca
0.93
Atletico San Luis
1.95

finishing

Toluca+0.18scores more
Atletico San Luis-0.05on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Atletico San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
73%
Toluca or Atletico San Luis
76%
Draw or Atletico San Luis
50%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
27%
Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
82%
Toluca 2+ goals
52%
Toluca 3+ goals
25%
Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
70%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
34%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
65%
Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.95 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 1.53 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Atletico San Luis attack 1.48 + Toluca defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Toluca scores more
50%
level
24%
Atletico San Luis scores more
27%

Toluca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Toluca 2–1 Atletico San Luis

Toluca beat Atletico San Luis 2-1 in Liga MX on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.