Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tolosa vs Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Tolosa
Tolosa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vitoria
Vitoria
12/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tolosa21%
×Draw25%
Vitoria54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolosa
0.88
Vitoria
1.58

Vitoria creates 80% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 78 away

creates per match

Tolosa
1.08
Vitoria
1.37

allows per match

Tolosa
1.79
Vitoria
0.68

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw
46%
Tolosa or Vitoria
75%
Draw or Vitoria
79%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+
7%
Vitoria wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals
59%
Tolosa 2+ goals
22%
Tolosa 3+ goals
6%
Vitoria 1+ goals
79%
Vitoria 2+ goals
47%
Vitoria 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)
28%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Vitoria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Vitoria defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Vitoria attack 1.37 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tolosa scores more
21%
level
25%
Vitoria scores more
54%

Vitoria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Tolosa 3–2 Vitoria

Tolosa beat Vitoria 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Berazubi in Tolosa.