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Tolosa vs Urduliz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Tolosa
Tolosa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Urduliz
Urduliz
10/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tolosa36%
×Draw26%
Urduliz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolosa
1.33
Urduliz
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 96 away

creates per match

Tolosa
1.08
Urduliz
0.98

allows per match

Tolosa
1.79
Urduliz
1.57

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par
Urduliz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Urduliz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw
61%
Tolosa or Urduliz
74%
Draw or Urduliz
64%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+
16%
Urduliz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals
74%
Tolosa 2+ goals
38%
Tolosa 3+ goals
15%
Urduliz 1+ goals
75%
Urduliz 2+ goals
40%
Urduliz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)
48%
Urduliz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Urduliz away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Urduliz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Urduliz attack 0.98 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tolosa scores more
36%
level
26%
Urduliz scores more
39%

Urduliz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Tolosa 1–2 Urduliz

Urduliz beat Tolosa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Berazubi in Tolosa.