Tolosa 3–4 Santutxu: Result & Stats

Tolosa

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Santutxu

4/29/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 38Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tolosa36%

×Draw26%

Santutxu39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolosaExpected goals in this matchSantutxu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

Tolosa

1.33

Santutxu

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

1.08

creates per match

0.98

1.79

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Tolosa

1.08

Santutxu

0.98

allows per match

Tolosa

1.79

Santutxu

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par

Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Santutxu →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw

61%

Tolosa or Santutxu

74%

Draw or Santutxu

64%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+

16%

Santutxu wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals

74%

Tolosa 2+ goals

38%

Tolosa 3+ goals

15%

Santutxu 1+ goals

75%

Santutxu 2+ goals

40%

Santutxu 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)

48%

Santutxu (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Santutxu attack 0.98 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tolosa scores more

36%

level

26%

Santutxu scores more

39%

Santutxu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santutxu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff