Tolosa 0–1 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Tolosa

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad III

11/9/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tolosa29%

×Draw24%

Real Sociedad III47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolosaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.73

Tolosa

1.30

Real Sociedad III

1.73

Real Sociedad III creates 33% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 44 away

1.08

creates per match

1.66

1.79

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Tolosa

1.08

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Tolosa

1.79

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw

53%

Tolosa or Real Sociedad III

76%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

71%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+

12%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals

73%

Tolosa 2+ goals

37%

Tolosa 3+ goals

14%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

82%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

52%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)

38%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.30

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tolosa scores more

29%

level

24%

Real Sociedad III scores more

47%

Real Sociedad III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff