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Tolosa vs Durango — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Tolosa
Tolosa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Durango
Durango
6/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tolosa32%
×Draw26%
Durango41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolosa
1.18
Durango
1.38

Durango creates 17% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 114 away

creates per match

Tolosa
1.08
Durango
0.96

allows per match

Tolosa
1.79
Durango
1.27

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw
59%
Tolosa or Durango
74%
Draw or Durango
68%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+
13%
Durango wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals
69%
Tolosa 2+ goals
33%
Tolosa 3+ goals
12%
Durango 1+ goals
75%
Durango 2+ goals
40%
Durango 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)
44%
Durango (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Durango away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Durango defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Durango attack 0.96 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tolosa scores more
32%
level
26%
Durango scores more
41%

Durango at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Durango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tolosa vs Durango

Durango beat Tolosa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Berazubi in Tolosa.