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Tolosa vs Deusto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Tolosa
Tolosa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deusto
Deusto
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tolosa32%
×Draw26%
Deusto41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolosa
1.20
Deusto
1.39

Deusto creates 16% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 111 away

creates per match

Tolosa
1.08
Deusto
0.98

allows per match

Tolosa
1.79
Deusto
1.31

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par
Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Deusto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw
59%
Tolosa or Deusto
74%
Draw or Deusto
68%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+
13%
Deusto wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals
70%
Tolosa 2+ goals
34%
Tolosa 3+ goals
12%
Deusto 1+ goals
75%
Deusto 2+ goals
40%
Deusto 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)
44%
Deusto (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Deusto attack 0.98 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tolosa scores more
32%
level
26%
Deusto scores more
41%

Deusto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deusto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tolosa vs Deusto

Tolosa beat Deusto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de Berazubi in Tolosa.