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Tolosa vs Basconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Tolosa
Tolosa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Basconia
Basconia
2/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tolosa24%
×Draw25%
Basconia51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolosa
0.99
Basconia
1.56

Basconia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 95 away

creates per match

Tolosa
1.08
Basconia
1.34

allows per match

Tolosa
1.79
Basconia
0.89

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par
Basconia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Basconia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw
49%
Tolosa or Basconia
75%
Draw or Basconia
76%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+
9%
Basconia wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals
63%
Tolosa 2+ goals
26%
Tolosa 3+ goals
8%
Basconia 1+ goals
79%
Basconia 2+ goals
46%
Basconia 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)
32%
Basconia (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Basconia away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Basconia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Basconia attack 1.34 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tolosa scores more
24%
level
25%
Basconia scores more
51%

Basconia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Tolosa 1–2 Basconia

Basconia beat Tolosa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de Berazubi in Tolosa.