Tolosa 2–1 Ariznabarra: Result & Stats

Tolosa

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ariznabarra

9/18/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Estadio de Berazubi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tolosa49%

×Draw24%

Ariznabarra27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolosaExpected goals in this matchAriznabarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.16

Tolosa

1.66

Ariznabarra

1.16

Tolosa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 29 away

1.08

creates per match

0.52

1.79

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Tolosa

1.08

Ariznabarra

0.52

allows per match

Tolosa

1.79

Ariznabarra

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tolosa+0.00on par

Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolosa ↓

Ariznabarra →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tolosa or draw

73%

Tolosa or Ariznabarra

76%

Draw or Ariznabarra

51%

Winning margin

Tolosa wins by 2+

26%

Ariznabarra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tolosa 1+ goals

81%

Tolosa 2+ goals

49%

Tolosa 3+ goals

23%

Ariznabarra 1+ goals

69%

Ariznabarra 2+ goals

32%

Ariznabarra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tolosa (draw refunded)

65%

Ariznabarra (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tolosa at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

Ariznabarra away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tolosa attack 1.08 + Ariznabarra defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ariznabarra attack 0.52 + Tolosa defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tolosa scores more

49%

level

24%

Ariznabarra scores more

27%

Tolosa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tolosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff