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Tolmin vs Tabor Sežana — 2. SNL 2019

Tolmin
Tolmin
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
5/23/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 30Stadion Na Brajdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tolmin33%
×Draw25%
Tabor Sežana43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tolmin
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.55

Tabor Sežana creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tolmin
1.17
Tabor Sežana
1.44

allows per match

Tolmin
1.67
Tabor Sežana
1.49

finishing

Tolmin+0.00on par
Tabor Sežana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tolmin ↓

Tabor Sežana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tolmin or draw
57%
Tolmin or Tabor Sežana
75%
Draw or Tabor Sežana
67%

Winning margin

Tolmin wins by 2+
14%
Tabor Sežana wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Tolmin 1+ goals
74%
Tolmin 2+ goals
38%
Tolmin 3+ goals
15%
Tabor Sežana 1+ goals
79%
Tabor Sežana 2+ goals
46%
Tabor Sežana 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tolmin (draw refunded)
43%
Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tolmin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

Tabor Sežana away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tolmin attack 1.17 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tabor Sežana attack 1.44 + Tolmin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tolmin scores more
33%
level
25%
Tabor Sežana scores more
43%

Tabor Sežana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tabor Sežana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. SNL: Tolmin 3–3 Tabor Sežana

Tolmin and Tabor Sežana drew 3-3 in 2. SNL on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Na Brajdi in Tolmin.